Calgarians overwhelmingly reject the idea of Alberta’s separation from Canada, according to the results of a new survey.

The results were part of a new survey done by Manitoba-based Probe Research that dove into Albertans’ views on the provincial government’s upcoming nine referendum questions.

Those nine questions include ones on immigration control, qualifying for social supports, proof of citizenship to vote, along with constitutional questions like the appointment of King’s Bench and Appeal court judges, potential abolition of the Senate and opt-outs of federal programs.

The questions will be put to Albertans on Oct. 19, 2026.

Of the 1,484 Albertans reached in an online survey conducted between April 27 and May 6, more than 51 per cent responded to questions on the referendum with a negative word – Angry, wasteful, corruption, distrust, divisive – with 27 per cent offering positive words like hopeful, positive, democratic and empowered.

The survey also asked about the Alberta separatism debate, a referendum question that still remains up in the air over legal challenges to a recent petition, and an investigation into alleged leaks of the Alberta list of electors.

Overall, on the question of separation, seven in 10 respondents said they would vote no if they cast a ballot today. That number is even higher in Calgary (76 per cent) and Edmonton (80 per cent).

Robson Fletcher, data and storytelling strategist with Probe Research, said the results weren’t entirely surprising.

“The numbers are fairly stable, and it’s kind of in line with what we had expected,” he told LWC.

That’s why they asked other questions about Albertans’ feelings on the potential impact of separation.

“We saw some interesting results there, I think, that were more striking to me than the straight yes or no question, which was pretty in line with what we’ve seen previously,” he said.

Among the respondents, 64 per cent worry about outside interference in the separatism debate, 74 per cent believe the separatism debate is distracting from other important issues in Alberta, while 39 per cent believe the discussion is helpful in Alberta’s negotiating relationship with the federal government.

Negative impact on the Alberta economy: Survey

When asked if they believed the Alberta separatism debate was hurting Alberta’s economy, 66 per cent said yes, while 24 per cent disagreed.

Previously, Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas said that there are economic deals on hold due to the separatism debate.

“What we’re seeing is that the rising rhetoric is actually damaging our prospects to attract industry,” Farkas said back in early April, ahead of Calgary Economic Development’s (CED) report to the community.

“It’s practically every day now that I speak with potential investors, entrepreneurs who are thinking about Calgary but otherwise putting their plans on hold until we see a resolution of the whole debate around separatism.”

CED president and CEO Brad Parry also acknowledged that they, too, get questions on Alberta separation from interested business groups.

The Probe Research panel also dove into the provincial horse race, showing the UCP with a seven-point lead (46 per cent) to the Alberta NDP’s 39 per cent. There are 19 per cent of Albertans undecided, according to the results.

Calgary is the battleground, with an even split among voters at 43 per cent for each party. With a 2027 election looming, the separatist impact could sway voters, with Fletcher noting it’s the classic wedge issue.

“It’s certainly fraught for the UCP more so than it is for the NDP,” Fletcher said.

“If your party and your base is split on an issue, that’s a potential vulnerability for you.”

Fletcher said the UCP, and in particular Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, has been walking a fine political line by discussing a sovereign Alberta as part of a united Canada.

“I think it’s something that they have been doing, and clearly will need to continue to do, based on these types of splits that we see in the party support for separatism,” he said.

No margin of error can be ascribed to an online survey, however, a similarly sized random survey would have a margin of error of 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

More from Probe Research can be found here.