Back in 2015, nine years ago today, then-federal Minister of Defence and Multiculturalism, Jason Kenney, glowed during the announcement of $1.53 billion in Government of Canada cash from the Public Transit Fund to a $4.5 billion Green Line project.

Kenney, who was a Conservative Member of Parliament for Calgary Southeast and just weeks away from a federal election, hinted at the time that they expected the province to also come to the table for their share – another $1.53 billion.

(Kenney later won his seat in the renamed Calgary-Midnapore but left the party in 2016 to run as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta, later for the United Conservative Party.)

“It’s difficult for municipalities alone to finance this kind of expensive, modern, cutting-edge infrastructure,” Kenney said at the time, according to a Calgary Herald story by Trevor Howell.

At that time, Howell wrote that the city had yet to determine how it would connect the north central leg to a south line via the downtown. That consisted of four options – including tunneling through the downtown.

That critical component hadn’t even been decided and wouldn’t be for years to come. Funding, however, had been committed.

In fact, according to former Ward 12 Coun. Shane Keating, the project’s primary driving force, when they put that number forward it was for roughly 45 kilometres of at-grade track and basic stations. He said the $4.5 billion was an “estimate.” They based it on $100 million per kilometre of track. Others have referred to it as back-of-napkin calculations.

(Note: the project is now described as $4.9 billion project cost, with an additional $640 million due to financing costs that were taken on by the City of Calgary, for a total of $5.5 billion.)

“That’s because it was planned as an at-grade, basic CTrain that got you from point A to point B with absolutely nothing else included,” Keating told LiveWire Calgary.

“The project changed for a number of good reasons, because an at-grade going through the core, it just isn’t the way any major city builds a subway or mass transit anymore.”

Plans have changed considerably. Calgary decided to move forward with a tunnel through the downtown after consultation with the public. They opted for low floor cars and stations that abandoned the brutalist concrete structures of LRTs past in favour of something that was free-flowing, and more community connected.

The $4.5 billion, 2015, bare bones price tag

In 2014, Calgary city council had agreed on a preliminary alignment for the Green Line, however, that came with no engineering, design and costing done, according to information provided to LiveWire Calgary.

As the heat of a fierce 2015 federal election approached, a call came from a federal minister looking for a big transit win.

“We got a call and they said, ‘Hey, how much is that Green Line you’re talking about, because we want to throw money at you because we’re worried about losing our home base of Calgary,” recalled Ward 9 Coun. Gian-Carlo Carra, in a May 2024 media scrum with Calgary reporters.

“We said, ‘we don’t know.’ And they said, ‘well, figure it out tomorrow.’  They call us on a Wednesday, ‘because on Friday, we’re going to give you a check for a third of the amount of money.’

“That’s how the first $1.53 billion for the Green Line came in. We absolutely took that money because we absolutely needed the Green Line.”

LWC has since confirmed that functional planning, land requirements, engagement and other next steps were targeted for 2016 so construction could begin in 2017.

Still, the math used for the project was based on 2015 surface rail costs. Subsequent project changes came in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

“We got it completely wrong. We underestimated how costly it would be to get through the downtown, to get over the river and up onto the escarpment,” Coun. Carra said.  

“Those were massive costs and different in kind than how the current LRT system gets through on an east-west.”

Scope change, alignment, politics… and time

LWC recently asked the province to confirm that they’d been at the table with city and federal officials about flexibility on projected cost overruns for Calgary’s Green Line.

Publicly, they continue to say that they will not provide any additional funding to the Green Line. 

“We acknowledge the cost pressures faced by the Green Line due to unrealistic budget projections when it was first proposed,” read an emailed statement attributed to Minister of Transportation and Economic Corridors, Devin Dreeshen.

“While Alberta remains committed to the Green Line, any cost increases will be the responsibility of the City and no additional funding will be available from the province.”

Earlier in May, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith suggested the project may need to be rescoped to fit into the initial budget envelope provided – back in 2015.

Rumours persist, however, that the province was ready to help with a portion of projected cost overruns. That is, until former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi burst on to the scene as a bona fide contender in the race for leadership of the Alberta NDP, and therefore on the provincial political radar.

LiveWire Calgary has not been able to confirm that this is the case and have been told by sources familiar with the project there is no paper record of the province indicating their willingness to help.

In multiple Postmedia opinion pieces by Rick Bell since Nenshi’s leadership run began, Minister Dreeshen has not been shy about hanging the Green Line situation on the former mayor. The ‘Nenshi Nightmare,’ he’s called it, according to Bell.

Meanwhile, the City of Calgary recently asked for an extension to LWC’s Freedom of Information and Privacy request for a copy of the Green Line funding agreement, and any amendments, with the province, as it’s not publicly available. They said they are still awaiting the approval of a third party, presumably the province.

A decision on the release of that agreement isn’t expected until the end of July. LWC has asked the province’s privacy commissioner for a swift review of that extension, but most requests for review take several weeks or months.

Keating said since the initial funding agreement, they had to go through functional planning, public discussions, debate on the final alignment and the scope, and lengthy provincial review under a different government before getting to the point where they could even begin enabling work.

Throw in COVID-19 and the post-COVID inflationary pressures, delays by city council and administration and it’s no surprise there are cost overruns, he said.

“If you add all of those things, and then the combination of changing it to make it a more city shaping and changing project, naturally, the costs are going to go up,” Keating said.

Carra said that when the Liberals were ultimately elected back in 2015, they said they would abide by all federal funding agreements – including the Green Line. He said Kenney, however, as UCP leader, defunded the Green Line “at ruinous cost.”

“When we started the Green Line, it was the largest and only significant fixed rail project in North America, and right now we’re competing internationally against 18 to 20 projects of the same size and that creates… we’ve gone from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market,” he said.

“The fact is, the world has changed and there’s been a lot of political dithering over 10 years, where this incredibly important project has gotten dragged through the ropes and we’ve emerged successfully even though there are people who still sewer the project. Will it cost more than it was going to cost 10 years ago? Absolutely.”

How much more?

Various sources familiar with the Green Line have pegged the cost overruns at between $1 billion and $2 billion, depending on how potential scope changes, if any, are accommodated.

Previously LWC had reported that cost overruns were expected to be in line with other major projects dealing with inflationary pressures, which was as much as 20 per cent.  Further, the cost situation, and potential solutions were expected to be delivered in June, after a 60 per cent design stage had been reached.

When asked about the June release of cost and solutions missing the June mark, the Green Line Board said they shared that they had a decision gate in June, which was correct.

“The Board met on June 6 and we met with Executive Committee this week, and will meet with Council next week. There are a number of steps to the recommendations and so we will use all of the Council meetings over the next month to keep discussing,” read a response from the Green Line executive director of public affairs, Wendy Tynan.

In the July 4 Green Line Board meeting, CEO Darshpreet Bhatti said they are at a stage where they can make a sound recommendation to the Board for their consideration. Bhatti said his primary focus has been on looking at all the different possibilities to address cost pressures, be it technical, commercial, legal or through procurement.

The Green Line item is expected to come back to a jam-packed meeting of Calgary city council at the end of July.

It’s not certain if the projected cost overruns, or solutions to limit them, will be made public at that time. For now, the Green Line is still slated to begin full construction later this year.

Either way, Keating just hopes that the project can slog through the political and fiscal quagmire into the transformational transit line that was envisioned.

“My best saying is quit the crap and get the job done – and that’s really where we’re at now,” Keating said.

“We have to get it done, without question, because you just cannot have the City of Calgary growing at the pace it is, changing into the city that it will be, if you don’t have reliable, acceptable and comfortable mass transit. The Green Line is the first step.”