Ahead of Albertans having their say on separation in the fall, experts forecast that, should the question become a reality, economic side effects could hit close to home for local businesses and low-income residents.

Come Oct. 19, residents will be asked to vote on 10 referendum questions, with the latest addition notably asking whether they support Alberta remaining a province or the provincial government initiating the process to seperate from Canada.

The question was kick-started by a pro-separation organization, Stay Free Alberta, whose petitions were later dismissed by an Alberta Court of Appeal judge, who said that separation would violate First Nations’ treaty rights and that the province had a duty to consult.

However, during her address to the province at the end of May, Premier Danielle Smith said that her government is appealing the ruling. 

She defended the decision to add the question of separation to the referendum, citing approximately 700,000 signatures from petitions by both Stay Free Alberta and the countergroup, Forever Canadian, as evidence that the topic was of public interest. 

“I, as Premier, will not have a legal mistake by a judge silence the voices of hundreds of thousands of Albertans,” she said in a news release. 

“That’s not the Alberta way. Alberta’s future will be decided by Albertans, not the courts.”

Since the announcement, several groups have spoken out against the suggestion of separation, including chiefs from nearby First Nations, such as Tsuut’ina, Bearspaw, Chiniki, and Goodstoney, who warned of existing land use obligations. 

Most pushback has focused on legal and constitutional issues, while the economic risks have often been analyzed at the macro level — leading local entities and experts to caution about the potential impact on residents.

Economic leaders sound alarm on referendum risks

Following the premier’s announcement of the referendum date, Deborah Yedlin, president and CEO of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, issued a statement on May 24 detailing the sector’s reasons for opposing the question. 

“Our business community has consistently raised concerns about this initiative because of the profound economic uncertainty and damage it will inflict on the province,” read the statement.

“At a time when businesses are already navigating a volatile economic environment, introducing this question creates further instability.”

Yedlin said that the referendum comes at a bad time, when businesses have already been hit by the consequences of other geopolitical events, such as the lasting effects of tariffs issued by U.S. President Donald Trump last spring. 

She said that, regardless of the outcome of the referendum, damage will be done to a number of areas, including investors relocating funds to more stable areas, skilled labour finding work elsewhere, and large capital projects being delayed or cancelled due to poor confidence. 

“With Calgary serving as home to several federally regulated industries, this process will further undermine regulatory certainty and jeopardize future economic advancement,” said Yedlin.

“This reality is straightforward: people, businesses, capital and opportunity will leave our province — and never come back.”

According to an earlier news release, this impact has already begun to take effect. A survey conducted in partnership with the Alberta Chambers of Commerce found that 28 per cent of Calgarians said separation talks have affected their business operations, with 88 per cent reporting a negative impact.

Adding further fuel to the separation debate, a recent survey from the Calgary Chamber of Commerce showed that 48 per cent of businesses said they’d likely relocate if the Alberta separation process continued.

“Our business community is sending a clear message — separation has moved beyond a theoretical debate to having tangible effects on business confidence and decision-making,” said Deborah Yedlin, President and CEO at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. 

“This discussion is not only about the movement of capital to other jurisdictions viewed as more predictable and stable, but also about how the movement of businesses, jobs and labour would permanently damage our economy. If a formal referendum process moves forward, the very foundations that have made Alberta one of Canada’s strongest economies – including a predictable, business-friendly environment – will be in jeopardy.”

Small businesses could be hit the hardest

Dean Curran, associate professor of sociology at UCalgary, specializes in how environmental, financial, and digital risk impact contemporary power relations. He said that the economy generally relies on political conditions.

“The law, and regulations, and international trade — all of these things are hugely fundamental to the function of the economy,” he said. 

“The specific regulatory regime, the specific laws, trade patterns, trade flows, tariff regimes. All these things are deeply, deeply dependent on the existing political situation.”

Curran said that referendums don’t necessarily have to be successful for the economy and the residents of a region to feel like they have to put the possible risk at the forefront of their worries. 

He said that midsize and large businesses often have several investment avenues to choose from, but that small businesses don’t tend to have these alternatives, making the concept of separation feel like a more palpable problem. 

Curran emphasized that although the discussion of Alberta sovereignty suggests a number of impacts, he is “fairly uncertain” about whether or not these will become a reality, noting that support has fallen in recent months.

A survey published by Leger on June 5 found that just 15 per cent of Albertans supported separation, down three per cent from a previous poll conducted in February. 

Of the 73 per cent of citizens who supported staying in Canada earlier this month, 56 per cent believed that the referendum and separation talks would have a negative impact on Alberta’s economy. 

Nonetheless, Curran said that political initiatives such as this can sometimes influence consumer behaviour in making people “feel just generally more anxious.”

No connection between poor economy, rising crime in sovereignty context: UCalgary prof

Another associate professor of sociology at UCalgary, Ted McCoy, is a historian and legal studies scholar who has most recently been researching the history of crime and poverty in early Calgary.

His study focused on the first 50 years after the city’s founding, ending before the Second World War. McCoy explained that this followed the first economic boom and the subsequent bust that happened in the early 1920s. 

“There is definitely a corresponding rise and fall in crime, but I wouldn’t really characterize it as economic uncertainty — it’s more accurate to say real economic precarity,” he said. 

“It’s not that people are uncertain. It’s that they’re actually struggling.”

McCoy noted that economic downturns have historically led to increased crime, but he stressed that low-income conditions should not be directly linked to this as the root cause. In the context of separation, he said it’s more likely that poverty could rise than crime rates would.

“If there’s a real economic downturn, then you definitely see a rise in precarity and people struggling,” said McCoy. 

“Pair that with the fall in social services, or the declining social services available…that all contributes to people falling through the cracks.”

Poverty as a potential side effect of separation

Dani DeBoice, executive director of Vibrant Communities Calgary, said she is concerned that the prospect of Alberta leaving Canada would affect already low-income individuals due to the changes this proposal would have on federally funded social services. 

She said that although it’s unclear what separation would mean for the delegation of income assistance funds, many residents rely on support programs like the Canada Workers Benefit, the Canada Child Benefit, and the Guaranteed Income Supplement. 

“We know that affordability is already a challenge for Calgarians and Albertans living on a low income,” said DeBoice. 

“What that means is people are struggling to make ends meet. It means that they’re having to make choices between going to the store and paying for healthy food to put on the table or covering their rent.”

The non-profit shared on its Enough for All Well-Being Dashboard that in 2025, 11 per cent of the city’s population lived in poverty and over 30 per cent of residents lived in food-insecure households. DeBoice said that leaving social services in the dark could worsen this. 

“To me, it is about the things that we rely on for basic needs,” she said. 

“Housing assistance, mental health supports, community connections — if any of that were to cease or not be replaced, we could see real consequences.”