Albertans appear to be headed toward potential referenda this fall, only not on the specific topic of separation, but instead on issues related to immigration.

That’s the word from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who addressed citizens via a televised message on Thursday evening.

In the address, Smith led off by praising the continued growth of the Alberta economy, underpinned by a recent energy agreement with the federal government. The premier also mentioned data centre announcements, TMX expansion, and a Dow Chemicals decision on a plastics facility as helping lead Alberta’s growth.

Though the economic growth is welcome, there are budget challenges ahead, she said.

“In the year I became Premier, the price of oil averaged $90 a barrel US,” read a copy of the speech.  

“These strong oil prices saw our budget enjoy royalty revenues of over $25 billion dollars and a surplus of around $11.6 billion dollars, which we used to build up the Heritage Fund and pay down provincial debt.”

It’s not the same picture now, with oil prices in the $60 range, and each $1 drop representing $750 million in revenues, Premier Smith said.

Despite this, Smith said Alberta has experienced continued economic growth due to the diversification of provincial industry – and that’s attracted attention from the outside.

“To put it bluntly, people across the country and around the world continue to want to move to our province in very large numbers to pursue job opportunities and prosperity,” Smith said.

Smith blamed former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s immigration policies, which she said brought more than 600,000 people to the province in just five years.

According to Statistics Canada data, Alberta’s population was 4.324 million in Q1 of 2019 and broke the five million barrier in Q2 of 2025. That represents a roughly 16 per cent increase in six years.

Queue the October referendum

Smith blamed the influx of new Albertans for putting strain on Alberta schools, hospital and social support systems.

“As just one example, our student population has skyrocketed by more than 80,000 students in just the last 4 years, with more than 140,000 students now having English as their additional language,” according to the speech.

“Is it any wonder that our teachers and students are struggling so much with classroom complexity and crowding?”

To deal with Alberta immigration issues, there will be a five-question referendum, which the Premier said was shaped by contributions to the Alberta Next panel town halls and online submissions.

It will deal with the province taking more control of immigration, limiting access to health, education, and social programs to only Canadian citizens and permanent residents, or charging a premium for immigrants to access them, requiring a year of residency before qualifying for programs, and introducing a mandatory citizenship declaration to participate in a provincial election.

“I know that as a province we will thoughtfully ponder, debate and ultimately come to a wise decision on these questions that will benefit our families and our fellow Albertans for generations, just as we’ve always done,” Premier Smith said.

While the Opposition NDP was under embargo, and an official response will be provided on Friday morning, they did pre-respond before the address on Thursday.

“Albertans will be listening for solutions to the crisis in health care, education, and the rising cost of living. That’s not what they’ll get.  Instead, Smith will distract, scapegoat, and play the blame game. She will not be accountable for the issues Albertans are facing – problems she and her government created,” read the prepared media statement from Alberta NDP Deputy Leader Rakhi Pancholi.  

 “Our education system is the lowest funded per-student in the country, our hospitals and health-care system are in chaos, and the cost of living is still increasing. Albertans deserve a government that puts their needs first, not one that points fingers and shifts blame for their mismanagement of Alberta’s finances and essential services.”

Public Interest Alberta called the Premier’s message on course with a “reckless, Trumpian agenda.”

“This is a time when all Canadians should be coming together to put forward a vision and plan in stark contrast to Trump and MAGA,” read a message from Bradley Lafortune, executive director.

“Instead, Danielle Smith and the UCP are in lock step with a government that is murdering its own citizens south of the border, attempting to cover up the biggest corruption and criminal scandal in its history, and dismantling democracy before our eyes.”

There will also be a handful of other constitutional questions on the referendum ballot. COPY BELOW

The scheduled date for the referendum is Oct. 19, 2026.