New mayoral polling from Leger has incumbent mayor Jyoti Gondek in the lead, but it’s a close race with two months until the municipal election.

The poll, done by Leger, was an online survey done among 471 Calgary proper residents aged 18 and older, randomly recruited through their online panel. The data was collected using non-probability sampling, which means that a margin of error cannot be applied. A similar probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of 4.5 per cent +/-, 19 times out of 20.

Jyoti Gondek leads with awareness (74 per cent) and voter intention at 15 per cent, with Jeromy Farkas at 14 per cent. Ward 1 Coun. and Communities First mayoral candidate Sonya Sharp sits third at eight per cent, Jeff Davison at six per cent and Calgary Party candidate Brian Thiessen has three per cent voting intention.

With a margin of error of nearly five percent, nearly all the candidates are in play, according to this survey.

There’s also still a considerable number of undecided voters, particularly among those who indicated they are likely to vote. Nearly half (45 per cent) of panel respondents said they were unsure, with four in 10 of those likely to vote.

As for awareness, the rest of the field trails Gondek more significantly, with Farkas known by 60 per cent, Sharp has 43 per cent, Davison 41 per cent and Thiessen 22 per cent.

Mayoral candidate approval is where things take a slight turn. Farkas leads in approval with 49 per cent, followed by Sharp at 48 per cent and Davison at 47 per cent. Gondek comes in at 37 per cent, while Thiessen garners 27 per cent approval.

According to the Leger online survey, lowering taxes is the top issue (43 per cent), fiscal restraint is next (25 per cent) and reducing poverty (23 per cent) is third.

Overall, 57 per cent of respondents believe that Calgary is on the wrong track, with one third saying the city is headed in the right direction.

Campaign responses

An internal Calgary Party memo circulated among their team from campaign strategist Stephen Carter, and obtained by LWC, acknowledged the low showing of Thiessen; however, it said there were a lot of reasons to be optimistic. Among them is that they believe the Farkas campaign has lost support and the Gondek campaign has stalled, and that they would have loved to have been in this position when he engineered a Naheed Nenshi win in 2010.

“Our voter ID shows little enthusiasm for either Gondek or Farkas. No one else is breaking through on the ground,” Carter wrote.

“We are the only campaign with a plan to knock on most of the city’s doors and build relationships face-to-face.”

Carter also said the poll was dropped on the Friday before Labour Day, and isn’t likely to get much traction.

Candidate Jeff Davison said that he’s excited by the numbers, though it was a small sampling of Calgarians and showed that few people have yet to be engaged with Calgary’s 2025 municipal election.

“We have a ground game that will be tough to beat,” Davison said via text message.

“Every day, my team and I are out there meeting with all walks of Calgarians. Not only are they excited for change, they also recognize that I’m the only candidate with the vision, leadership and experience to lead our city to become a safe and affordable city of opportunity for everyone.”

The Sharp campaign declined to comment at this time.

The Farkas campaign team said that in just six months, their candidate has gone from outside the race to polling within the margin of error.

“It’s because Calgarians recognize Jeromy’s record, his ability to work across party lines, and his plan for the city. He now holds the highest approval rating in the field, and nearly a thousand grassroots donors have already stepped up to fuel this campaign,” read a statement from deputy campaign manager, Daorcey LeBray.

“That combination of trust, momentum, and grassroots support makes Jeromy the only candidate with the strength to defeat the incumbent and actually deliver for Calgarians.”