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Calgary election: Poll shows mayor’s race has two front runners: ThinkHQ

Two candidates continue to stay atop the Calgary’s mayoral race, according to a new online survey by ThinkHQ.

The data shows Jeromy Farkas with 30 per cent of the vote, followed closely by Jyoti Gondek at 25 per cent.

The online survey reached 1,109 adult Calgarians from Sept. 13 to 16. It was done through the Angus Reid Forum and weighted to reflect gender, age and region of the Calgary population, according to Statistics Canada.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample would be 2.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The ThinkHQ data shows Gondek closed a big gap, jumping 15 points since July. Still, in that same span, Farkas gained seven points. The number of undecided Calgary voters sits at 28 per cent but is down 16 points from earlier results.

“Gondek has the benefit of momentum, more wind in her sails, and greater growth potential in her vote share,” said ThinkHQ president, Marc Henry.  

“Kent Hehr’s decision to withdraw from the race likely most directly benefits Councillor Gondek’s prospects.”

Jeff Davison is still in third position, with the results showing six per cent support. Kent Hehr had three per cent, but he’s now withdrawn from the race.  Brad Field also has three per cent support, while Jan Damery is running at two per cent.

Campaign will matter: Henry

Henry said that for a while the polling results in Calgary were stagnant. Now we’re starting to see a shift.

Right now, Farkas has support among men and those living outside the inner city. Gondek is over-performing in the northeast and inner city, with higher support among younger voters, according to the responses.

“It took a while, but with 26 days to go, Calgary’s mayoral race has finally become ‘hotly contested’. For months, the race showed little movement, but there’s been plenty in the past few weeks,” Henry said.

While there are 27 candidates running to replace Mayor Naheed Nenshi, Henry said it’s looking like more of a two-horse race.

Henry said that Farkas has the benefit of time with advanced polls opening Oct. 4. His voter base is generally committed, which means they can be depended on to turn out and vote.

“It’s going to be an interesting race, and the campaign will definitely matter, not only in terms of execution, but in terms of the issues where the voters focus.”