Calgary and Alberta’s economy has significant momentum, but the prospect of a separatist agenda puts it at risk, say local business and economic leaders.

That’s the message from key speakers at the Calgary Economic Development 2027 Economic Outlook, held Tuesday at the BMO Centre, who otherwise said that the city and province’s economic future looks very bright.

According to ATB Financial’s vice president and chief economist Mark Parsons, Alberta’s real gross domestic product growth will be 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2.3 per cent in 2027 0 more than triple the projected growth for the rest of Canada.

“This is a pivotal moment. A year ago, I said to you, signals are being sent, right words were being said across the country from the prime minister and the premiers, and I think it’s fair to say that we’ve moved from words to action, and we’re getting closer to execution,” he said.

“I do think we are on the verge of something very big here.”

Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, one of the keynote speakers at the Tuesday event, cited the boost from Alberta’s energy sector as a key driver behind both the city and the province’s future success.

“I’m going to talk about great optimism, the tailwinds we have. I am very bullish about the midterm future and long-term future for Calgary and the Alberta and the Western Canadian economies for a number of reasons,” he said.

Kenney leaned heavily on investments in the oil and gas sector, along with the federal government speeding up project approvals, and deregulation to help unlock “10s of billions” of new investment in resource industries.

Kenney also said that Alberta needs to demonstrate that it is a place of political stability.

“I’m a message-sending voter on October 19th. I want to send a message that we are open for business, and we are a stable jurisdiction,” he said.

“That we are not going to launch ourselves into a wood-chipper of uncertainty and economic pain. Start hacking off limbs with a never-ending debate on secession, which takes us nowhere, but deters the new capital investment that we so desperately need.”

Stability and fluidity key to realizing optimum economic growth

Brad Parry, president and CEO of Calgary Economic Development, said that in the meetings he’s had with business leaders, investors and decision makers over the past year, given the economic and geopolitical turmoil globally, they’re looking for reliable, trusted and stable trade partners.

“As the conversation unfolds, Canada is looking west, and Alberta is at the center of those discussions,” he said.

“Our country is now looking to attract a trillion dollars worth of investment over the next five years. But we can’t take that for granted. We know that capital is fluid, and it will look for places where they can find stability and certainty. And that’s why the debate around Alberta separatism is not an abstract political conversation. It carries real economic consequences.”

A reliance on the energy sector to once again buoy the economy isn’t the danger is once was, said Parsons. What’s different now is that diversification done over the past two decades is starting to create a solid foundation for economic growth beyond the resource rollercoaster.

“The trick to this is building off resource strengths and energy, which has very high wages, high levels of productivity, and expanding around that-that’s the balance we got to get right,” he said.

“I would say over the last decade, we’ve made some inroads in other sectors that have been challenging in the past. We’re building aircraft near Calgary now… Did you ever think that was going to happen? The tech sector is leading North American jurisdictions in employment growth.

“We’ve built that ecosystem. We have that critical mass that we can continue to expand around, and we can grow energy at the same time. To me, that’s the sweet spot.”

Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas said that any prolonged uncertainty around separation could weigh on economic growth.

“Calgary has worked hard to build an economy that is more diversified, resilient and globally competitive, but the threat of separatism undermines that momentum,” said Farkas.

“The opportunities available to Calgarians today, and those of the generations to come, will be shaped by our ability to inspire investor confidence, attract investment and continue building a city where we are welcoming and embrace new people and new ideas.”