The words “wake-up call” were used more than once Tuesday to describe the fallout from the Alberta NDP’s victory in the Calgary-Shaw byelection.

NDP candidate Kyle Campbell won the byelection by a healthy margin — roughly 600 votes – over UCP candidate Mike Derry, in a riding that the UCP won by more than 3,300 votes in the 2023 provincial general election.

The Calgary-Shaw riding was contested after former Alberta government minister Rebecca Schulz left her seat earlier this year.

Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, said that she was surprised by the result. She admitted that she’d teed up the byelection on the radio Monday morning, saying she didn’t believe the NDP could win.

“Calgary-Shaw has been solidly conservative in the past,” Young said.

“Even in the context of a byelection, where things are always less stable, I would have thought of this as a safe riding for the UCP. It’s a noteworthy upset.”

Young said that characterizing it as a warning shot of sorts to the governing UCP was an appropriate way to put the NDP byelection win.

“I think this is a wake-up call that there’s weakness for the party, even in the urban ridings that they thought they could hold on to. There’s potential for the NDP to win these seats.”

Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas was far sharper in his critique of the NDP win.

“The byelection result is no surprise to me. Look, if you run a conspiracy-theory-peddling separatist, you’re not going to be able to win in Calgary,” Farkas told reporters on Tuesday.

“I think with the UCP base right now, where you have a lot of focus on more of these fringe issues, less so on the bread and butter, and this goes to show that you cannot take Calgarians for granted, and it should be a little bit of a warning call or reality check for the government of the day to take Calgarians seriously.”

Alberta separation a Calgary-Shaw byelection ballot question?

Mayor Farkas said it’s hard to pin the byelection win on one particular issue, including the referendum and Alberta’s potential separation from Canada.

“It is a bit of a shot to the bow when you have a governing party not able to win what should be their safest seat in the entire city,” he said.

“So yes, I would say that just speaking anecdotally, a lot of friends in the conservative movement, and I’d say many of them are alienated by this push for separation. So, this push for separation has really alienated a lot of folks, especially amongst that right-of-center support base.”

Young agreed that it was difficult to pin the byelection loss on one particular issue.

“But given how prevalent the referendum is in the political conversation in Alberta right now, it’s hard to imagine that it wasn’t a big part of the context, and so I would imagine that it influenced the outcome in some way.”

In Calgary and area, support for Alberta separatism is low, barely reaching three in 10.

Ward 13 Coun. Dan McLean sought the UCP nomination for the Calgary-Shaw nomination, only to cede the spot to Mike Derry. He congratulated Campbell on the win and looked forward to working with him to serve that area’s residents.

“Look, it’s no secret I’m a conservative. I was worried this could happen. When conservatives work together on broad-based, common-sense policies, we win,” McLean said.

“When we get labeled as extremists or rabid separatists, we lose. So, this might be a wake-up call for the party to work together.”

McLean left Tuesday’s scrum by quipping that he probably would have won the byelection had he been chosen as the candidate.

Young said that going into the 2027 provincial election, having a high-profile byelection loss like this should force the party to reexamine its strategy moving forward.

Mayor Farkas agreed, saying that any party looking to win provincial seats in Calgary next year has to focus on issues that matter most to citizens.

“Right now, it’s bread and butter. It’s affordability for families and particularly public safety.

“I’d say that would be my advice to both the NDP and the UCP. Focus on keeping taxes reasonable, control spending, address infrastructure and public safety, and I think that’s the path to victory here in the city.”