While there’s an air of uncertainty around Calgary and Alberta’s economy, it’s faring better than the rest of Canada, and will continue to do so in 2026.

That’s the message from Calgary Economic Development’s (CED) 2026 Economic Outlook held Nov. 19 at the BMO Centre in Calgary.

CED president and CEO Brad Parry said that Calgary continues to grow, and people continue to choose this city to live in. He said CED expects the economy to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2026, while both inflation and population growth to be around two per cent each.

“We expect that some of the growth in affordability pressures to ease, but we also expect uncertainty to persist,” he said.

Parry said that they’re strategy to deal with uncertainty is to double down on diversification of Calgary’s trade markets.

“We can’t rely on one dominant market anymore,” he said.

“Canada already has access to more than 1.5 billion consumers across 51 countries with 15 trade agreements and CED, we’re helping more Calgary companies expand through new markets and support systems.”

He also said that innovation was still key to Calgary’s economic prosperity. The focus needs to remain on creating conditions where companies can build, scale and grow – and stay – in Calgary.

The uncertainty, however, is the big headwind for Calgary, and Alberta.

“I think when you see trade uncertainty, you see policy uncertainty,” Parry said.

“It’s a challenge for businesses to make plans and grow, but I think we can’t let that stop us. We’ve got to keep moving forward, and we have to look for those new opportunities.”

As far as tariffs, they’re still impacting Calgary companies, but the fatigue is setting in.

“One day (tariffs are) on, one day they’re off. But I think businesses are starting to look beyond just that,” he said.

“The over-reliance on one trading partner has become a catalyst for companies to think about new things in new ways.”

Alberta continues to weather the storm

Mark Parsons, vice president and chief economist with ATB Financial, said that Alberta has had less impact on its economy with the global trade uncertainty largely because the tariffs don’t punish Alberta products as harshly, but also because population growth continues to be strong.

There’s obvious uncertainty in the business and investment sector, he said.

“It’s a cautious business environment right now. There’s a lot of uncertainty. Businesses are reluctant to make big spending plans and hire a lot of people,” he said.

“We have a relatively high unemployment rate, which is basically the labour market struggling to keep up with the people who are coming here, looking for work. So, those are some ongoing challenges, but we do expect Alberta’s economy and Calgary’s economy to continue to outpace the national economy over the next couple of years.”

Parsons said that it was a unique situation that Alberta finds itself in right now, with the high population growth, high unemployment, but large pockets of demand in the labour market. Calgary’s unemployment rate is hovering at around eight per cent, but has among the highest labour participation rate in the country.

“Calgary’s population alone grew over 100,000 people, 2024, and some of the people are coming not necessarily with a job. They’re coming maybe for affordability reasons or to pursue job opportunities that they don’t have,” he said.  

“So, you’re going to have a bit of a skills mismatch in the labour market. That’s exactly what we’re seeing right now. We have lots of people, but not necessarily the right people for the jobs that are available.”

Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas said a big focus for the current council will be on restoring the certainty that they can in 2026 through housing, affordability and public safety initiatives, particularly as he said the city will soon reach two million people.

“It’s an exciting prospect for us, but it’s going to require intentional, mindful investments around the services and infrastructure to support them,” he said.

He said moving forward on the Prairie Economic Gateway is a big piece of Calgary’s future economic puzzle.

“Prairie Economic Gateway is a game-changing investment, not just for local Calgarians, but also when we think about Calgary as a goods movement and logistics hub,” he said.

“Also, the opportunity for a regional reset, working together with an economic development strategy where Calgary isn’t as much at odds with local and neighbouring municipalities, approaching a trade attitude where rising tide lifts all boats.”