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Advance Vote Day 3: Big Alberta voting numbers continue

A new poll by ThinkHQ Public Affairs gives a slight edge to the Alberta NDP in Calgary.

As of day three in advance voting, more than 460,000 Albertans have cast their votes during the 2023 Alberta provincial General Election.

The record number of votes has continued to surpass the number of ballots cast by day during the advance vote in 2019, with votes to date representing two-thirds of the total advance votes cast in that year.

Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley, speaking in Calgary on May 25, said that number of Albertans taking advantage of advance voting was incredibly encouraging and exciting for her party.

“We’ve spoken to so many Albertans who have spoken to us about how it is they plan to vote, so as a result we know that the vast majority of people who have voted so far are actually people who have told us they are going to vote for us,” she said.

“Our campaign has been working overtime to really encourage people to get out and vote, and to remind people about all the different ways they can.”

According to ThinkHQ Public Affairs, the NDP holds a modest lead in Calgary over the UCP in a survey released on May 25.

ThinkHQ said that 49 per cent of decided voters would be casting their ballots for the NDP, versus 43 per cent of decided voters for the UCP. The Alberta Party, they said, was at 6 per cent, and all others at 3 per cent.

“Currently, only one-in-ten (10%) voters remain undecided in Calgary,” said ThinkHQ.

The poll was conducted from May 19 through May 23, in an online survey of 1,054 Calgarians, and was weighted to reflect age, gender and region of Calgary. The standard of error was 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

“We knew Calgary, with 26 seats up for grabs, would be the battleground for this election. The NDP will likely pick up seats in the city; how many is a little tougher to gauge,” said ThinkHQ president Marc Henry.

“Even with a 1,000+ sample, the margin of error is still +/- 3 points. Technically speaking, the two parties could be tied, and many of these seats look very competitive.”

How did Calgary advance voting stack up for the NDP and UCP in 2019?

An analysis performed by LWC on the 2019 Provincial General Election data showed that support for advance voting in Calgary for the NDP ranged from a low of 29 per cent in Calgary-Cross to a high of 50 per cent in Calgary-North East.

Calgary-Mountain View, Calgary-Buffalo, and Calgary-McCall, all won by NDP candidates, had 38 per cent, 40 per cent, and 40 per cent advance votes for the NDP versus election day votes, respectively.

For the UCP, advance voting ranged from a low of 31 per cent in Calgary-East (out of the total UCP votes cast) to a high of 51 per cent in Calgary-South East.