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New Alberta coronavirus modelling shows big drop in projected hospitalization, ICU

New coronavirus modelling released by Alberta Tuesday is in stark contrast to information put out to the province via televised address 20 days ago.

The information, using the most up-to-date provincial data, was released by Premier Jason Kenney and bears little resemblance to the frightening picture painted by the province earlier this month.

In the initial modelling, the province expected 818 hospitalization in its probable scenario. That’s now been revised to 596 in the new probable. A low scale has also been added – and that’s at 300 hospitalizations.

The original intensive care unit (ICU) scenario had a probable peak of 232 coronavirus cases. That’s now down to 190 in the probable, but the low is 95 cases. 

There are currently 21 people in Alberta ICUs.

Covid 19 Case Modelling Pro… by Darren Krause on Scribd

This round of modelling did not include an expected peak, an expected peak case count, or an expected death count.  We have asked the province for an explanation on this exclusion but haven’t yet received a response.

The province has maintained that hospitalizations and ICU admissions would be key indicators in determining how well the province has fared in capping the spread.

Despite the better modelling numbers, Premier Kenney said Albertans need to stay vigilant.

“We’re not yet at the point of returning to our normal way of life. But I want to stress that Alberta’s government is working around the clock on a phased approach to relaunch our economy,” the Premier said.

That plan is expected later this week and should include milestone dates when some public health measures may be relaxed, and some businesses can resume.

Daily coronavirus numbers

In the past 24 hours, Alberta reported 154 new coronavirus cases, said Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s Chief Medical Officer of Health. Alberta’s total case count is now 4,850.

In the last 24 hours, 3,239 tests have been completed and a total of 138,681 tests have been performed by the lab.

Five more deaths were recorded, including two at continuing care facilities, bringing the provincial total to 80. There are 483 cases at continuing care centres in Alberta, with 52 deaths.

So far, 759 cases have been confirmed among workers at Cargill meat packing plant, with another 249 cases at JBS in Brooks.

There have been 1,800 Albertans that have recovered from COVID-19.

Dr. Hinshaw said the new modelling numbers are good news.

“Alberta is starting to see the results of the collective sacrifices we have made. But I want to stress that this fight is far from over,” she said.